By K B Jandial
Jammu, June 23: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first direct engagement with political leaders from Jammu & Kashmir today (June 24) after scrapping Article 35-A and restating 370 on August 5, 2019, has evoked speculations on the possible outcome. Since Modi is known for springing surprises, many are expecting some big announcements on J&K. Political analysts, however, are keeping their figures crossed.
The initiative is significant to break the ice with important estranged Kashmiri leaders who were detained, some under Public Safety Act (PSA), to prevent bloodshed. Effective back-channel contacts have made them agree to participate in the meeting, notwithstanding their initial public posturing. To soften resistance, the government had also released some important PDP leaders.
The government has already taken some positive initiatives like the LoC ceasefire and the lifting of communication clampdown. After having achieved much of its agenda, Modi may not be averse to give some concessions for addressing ‘internal and external dimensions of J&K’. It also has geopolitical context with the US moving out of Afghanistan in two months’ time and locating American bases in Pakistan for which talks are in progress.
The UAE, which brokered backchannel talks with Pakistan suggested, some CBMs like the release of political prisoners, grant of statehood, stopping the process of demographic change, if any, and reduction of security forces in Kashmir. Dawn, basing information from informed sources close to Pak Army Chief Gen Bajwa, has claimed that backchannel talks were “being held between the intelligence leaderships of the two countries”.
Contrary to the earlier rumours of Statehood to Jammu and carving out one more territorial divisions, Modi may ‘unfold’ the blueprint for Statehood ‘soon’ as per the commitment made to the Parliament. Modi seems keen to end the political stalemate in Kashmir and complete the exercise of delimitation of constituencies at the earliest. The PM is likely to link the restoration of Statehood to early completion of delimitation of assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies and involvement of NC MPs that would make exercise more credible.
All leaders are likely to reiterate their stated positions and leave no opportunity to blast the Modi government for “murdering democracy”. Dr Farooq Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, Omar & Yusuf Tarigami can be expected to seek restoration of pre-August 2019 position, reintroduction of original Article 370 & integrating Ladakh back to J&K. None of these demands would, however, be accepted.
Congress would play safe by restricting its criticism to the manner in which Article 370 was “abrogated” but likely to refrain from seeking its restoration. Ghulam Nabi Azad’s main demand would remain restoration of Statehood. Sajad Lone and Muzaffar Beig may take the middle path while the Apni Party’s stated position is the restoration of Statehood and wait for the decision of the Supreme Court of Parliament’s legislative move on Article 370.
But what about Jammu? Who would speak for it and its aspirations and sentiments? Out of eight parties invited, only two are Jammu based- BJP and Panthers Party. It seems Jammu would continue to suffer for want of consensus on larger interests of the region.
BJP leaders from the state would have no independent say and may train their guns against the Gupkar Alliance, especially NC and PDP. While they can espouse national interest in J&K, they still should air Jammu’s sentiments for a separate Statehood. Even if it doesn’t go well with the government of India’s policy of separating overwhelmingly Muslim dominated Kashmir (93.6%-2011 census) from Hindu majority Jammu (65% Hindus, 31% Muslims) as Jammu balances the demographic overtones of Kashmir.
Even if Jammu’s sentiments are ‘sacrificed’ in the larger national interest, a constitutional guarantee against perpetual discrimination in the matters of development and employment must put in place. Statutory Regional Autonomous Councils could be one of the options to safeguard its interests. The cadre for jobs can be made district and divisional so that domiciles of the local area could compete for these jobs ending the monopoly of any particular region or even district.
This can be granted by amending Article 371 of the Constitution of India and incorporating Article 371-J. Such constitutional safeguards are to at least 10 States. Hopefully, political disempowerment would end with the report of the Delimitation Commission. (feedback: [email protected])
