Jammu, June 28: The recently-concluded visit of a Pakistani delegation to Jammu and Kashmir earlier this week, first in five years, has signalled a thaw in the bilateral relations– frozen since the 2019 abrogation of the Article 370, between India and Pakistan.
Riding on the wave of public support on his way to third consecutive term at the Centre, albeit lesser in numbers than previous two terms, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been planning to take a more pragmatic stance towards Kashmir this time around, while rebuilding some semblance of a relationship with Pakistan.
This is reflected in Prime Minister’s two-day-long visit to Srinagar where he promised early assembly elections in the region along with restoration of statehood, days before a five-member Pakistani delegation joined by 35 other Indian and neutral experts arrived in Jammu region to inspect various under-construction power projects under the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in the Chenab valley region.
Experts believe that these development were signs Modi would take a reconciliatory stance towards Islamabad during his third term, which began earlier this month, thus sparking optimism for improved relations between India and Pakistan.
This was the first visit by a Pakistani delegation to Jammu and Kashmir in more than five years under the dispute settlement mechanism of the 1960 treaty.
The Indus River originates in the southwestern Tibet autonomous region of China, flows through the disputed Kashmir region and enters into Pakistan, draining into the Arabian Sea.
The treaty established the rights and obligations of both countries regarding the use of the Indus River system’s waters. It allocated the waters of the western rivers – the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab – to Pakistan, and the eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej – to India.
The Pakistani delegation’s visit to Jammu and Kashmir marks a shift from Modi’s previous hints at revoking the treaty.
While Pakistan has already expressed its wish to have improved trade and other bilateral relations with India time and again, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting of heads of government, chaired by Pakistan, later this year would be a good opportunity for both countries to engage.
“To my understanding, there are some back-channel talks happening. Allowing Pakistan’s delegation to Kashmir can be seen as a baby step to engage with Islamabad at some level,” an expert informed.
The expert reasoned that Modi in his first term tried to do a lot in Kashmir but he never received political reciprocity for his efforts.
“In Modi’s 2.0, he went with full outrage, audacity and ruthlessness to execute things. Now in his third term, the focus will remain on stability and normalcy, showing people of Jammu and Kashmir that reconciliation will be on our terms,” the expert said.
India and Pakistan signed the IWT after nine years of negotiations, with the World Bank being a signatory of the pact which sets out a mechanism for cooperation and information exchange between the two sides on the use of waters of a number of cross-border rivers.
A three-member Pakistan delegation inspected the Pakal Dul and Lower Kalnai hydroelectric power projects under the provisions of the IWT for the last time in January 2019, before the ties between the two countries froze following the revocation of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir.
Pakistan had in a request to the World Bank in 2016 objected to the design features of the two hydroelectric power projects and sought a settlement through a ‘Neutral Expert.’
The country, however, later withdrew the request and sought adjudication through a Court of Arbitration. India, on the other hand, insisted that the issue should be resolved solely through ‘Neutral Expert’ proceedings.
After failed negotiations, the World Bank appointed a Neutral Expert and the chair of the Court of Arbitration in October 2022. Issuing a notice for the modification in the Treaty, India warned that “such parallel consideration of the same issues is not covered under any provision of the IWT.”
In July 2023, the Court of Arbitration ruled that it was “competent to consider and determine the disputes set forth by Pakistan’s request for arbitration.”
Pakistan filed its first Memorial, which listed out its legal case with documents, under this process in March this year.
A month later, the court undertook a week-long visit to the Neelum-Jhelum Hydro-Electric Plant in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir “to familiarise the court with general aspects of the design and operation of run-of-river hydro-electric plants along the Indus system of rivers.”
While India refused to take part in the Court of Arbitration, it submitted a Memorial to the Neutral Expert in August 2023.
Pakistan joined the second meeting of the parties held by Neutral Expert in Vienna in September last year which discussed matters related to the organisation of the site visit.
The Jammu and Kashmir administration has appointed 25 “liaison officers” to coordinate the visit of neutral experts along with delegations from India and Pakistan.
